OCTOBER 2020 PREDICTIONS
October starts out beautifully for most of the country with sunshine predicted for the western half of North America, cloudiness in the middle of the continent, and a lot of rainy periods for cities down the Eastern seaboard.
On October 12, Canadian Thanksgiving, folks in Canada and give thanks for umbrellas, as showers and cool temperatures will predominate across the Commonwealth. In the States, a tropical rainstorm will dampen the Northeast, while most other parts of the nation will have dry weather.
The weather on October 17, National Pasta Day, will not bring a chance of meatballs, but rain will grate on some in the northwest quarter of the United States and eastern third of Canada.
On October 20, World Statistics Day, there’s a 63.2% chance of a tropical storm threat in the southeastern states, with a 71.3% chance of snow showers in the Intermountain region and Alaska and an 81.2% chance of rain in the Pacific states. The chances for rain are only 12.7% elsewhere, although 78.2% of Canada will have at least the possibility of a shower. The Prairies will even have a 40.7% chance of snow.
October 31 brings Halloween, the only day of the year in which I look normal. The weather will be a treat across most of the United States, with dry weather and mild temperatures predominating. While the Prairies should be dry, most of Canada will have trickier weather, with showers across the south and snowy periods farther north.
Overall, October will bring milder-than-normal temperatures nearly everywhere—and much warmer than normal in the eastern two-thirds of the United States. As the leaves begin turning color and floating to the ground, above-normal rainfall will spread from the Deep South and Southeast northeastward to New England and from central California northward through the Pacific Northwest. Most other areas will be dry or nearly so.
THE UPCOMING WINTER
As for the upcoming winter, we will be entering Solar Cycle 25, which is expected to bring very low solar activity. Although low levels of solar activity have historically been associated with cooler temperatures, on average, across Earth, we believe that recent warming trends will dominate in the eastern and northern parts of the United States in the coming winter, with below-normal average temperatures limited to the western portion of the nation.
Temperatures will average above normal in most of Canada, except for Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, where below-normal readings are expected. As we move toward the winter, watch for any changes in the ENSO pattern (the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is based on temperatures in the Pacific Ocean), where we expect a weak La Niña to develop. If La Niña were to be stronger, colder temperatures would likely prevail across the northern Plains and southern Ontario. If instead we have more neutral conditions or an El Niño, California would experience heavier rainfall while the Canadian Prairies would have milder temperatures.