fbpx
When will the market turn?
Housing affordability has declined dramatically in 2022 due to continued rising home prices and a three-percentage point jump in mortgage rates. Based on the popularity of Google searches for "housing bust" or "housing bubble", it could be surmised that buyers are anticipating relief, but they are probably not going to see it anytime soon. Home […]
When will the market turn?
Housing affordability has declined dramatically in 2022 due to continued rising home prices and a three-percentage point jump in mortgage rates. Based on the popularity of Google searches for "housing bust" or "housing bubble", it could be surmised that buyers are anticipating relief, but they are probably not going to see it anytime soon. Home […]

42600ff5-94ed-4652-a584-14321a2ec3f1.jpg

Housing affordability has declined dramatically in 2022 due to continued rising home prices and a three-percentage point jump in mortgage rates. Based on the popularity of Google searches for "housing bust" or "housing bubble", it could be surmised that buyers are anticipating relief, but they are probably not going to see it anytime soon.

Home price appreciation is moderating and is down from the 20% level experienced in 2021. Some of the major industry prognosticators are estimating anywhere from 9% to 14% for 2022. Interest rates are expected to continue to rise through the end of 2022 and could be at 7%. Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.66% on October 6, 2022.

Even though homes currently for sale increased to 3.2 months in August 2022, it isn’t that much more than it was for the same month in 2021 when it was at 2.6 months. Most markets are still entrenched in favor of sellers because a balanced market between buyer’s and seller’s is at six month’s supply.

While buyers may be feeling that a new home is no longer affordable, there are several affordability indexes that provide a baseline for objective measurement. The National Association of REALTORS� produces a monthly index. Affordability is determined by indicating a median income person/family can afford to purchase a median priced home with a 20% down payment based on a 25% qualifying ratio for monthly housing expense to gross monthly income.

The index is structured so that a value of 100 indicates that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. When the index is above 100, the family has more than enough to qualify.

The NAR Housing Affordability Index for 2019, 2020, and 2021 was 159.7, 169.9 and 152 respectively. It was 143.1 in January and by April had decreased to 108.1 and the preliminary number for June is 98.5. The decrease in the index is directly affected by rising interest rates and home prices outpacing family income.

Home sales were seasonally adjusted in August to be 4.8 million which is down .4% from the previous month and down 19.9% from August 2021. Lower sales are partly a function of a smaller pool of eligible buyers and concerns about a variety of economic conditions.

This may not sound like good news for buyers whether they are labeled first-time or move-up, but it is an objective view of the market. It has become more expensive to buy a home now and will continue to increase in the future.

Getting into a house using whatever devices are necessary can at least put the momentum on your side. Homes are appreciating faster than inflation and the fact that leverage improves the growth rate due to using borrowed funds to buy the home is also to the buyer’s advantage.

So, getting back to the original question "when will the market turn to make homes more affordable?" It may not be a dramatic change but more likely, a subtle one. Prices will moderate by still appreciating but not as much as in 2021. Inventories will increase slightly but won’t affect price because the low supply has been almost a decade in the making and it will take time to reach balance in the market.

Mortgage rates are not as low as they were, but they never were before in the history of the U.S. Millions of people had mortgages in the 1980’s that were as high as 18.5%. Buyers financed the homes at the going market rate, sometimes with creative financing, and refinanced the properties later when the rates came down and the values had gone up.

Real estate is still a great hedge against inflation, and many times, the largest and best investment individuals have. The Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances found that homeowner’s net worth is 41 times greater than renters.

LIST OF BLOGS

Understanding Credit Life Insurance for Home Buyers

Credit life insurance is a specialized type of insurance designed to provide financial protection for borrowers and their families in the event of the borrower's untimely death. This insurance is often associated with loans, including mortgages, and is specifically...

Discover how to make a difference in your neighborhood

Whether you're a seasoned homeowner or just starting this thrilling chapter, every time you turn your key, you're not just entering a house but also embedding yourself in a neighborhood. The heartbeat of a vibrant community doesn't solely rest upon pristine lawns or...

How Home Value Growth Beats Renting

Over the last 60 years, the average sales price of homes has appreciated at a rate of 5.56% annually, according to the Federal Reserve Economic Data. During the same period, rent has increased at a rate of 3.88% annually which presents a compelling argument in favor...

Access “Trapped Equity” without Refinancing

American homeowners have a record amount of equity in their home. Many of these homeowners would like to cash out part of that equity but don't want to trade an historically low interest rate for one that is as high as it's been in 20 years. Instead of refinancing...

Navigating Closing Costs During Your Home Sale

Buying or selling a house is an exciting and sometimes confusing experience that includes expenses called "closing costs" that can often catch us by surprise. Closing costs are simply the fees and expenses incurred by buyers and sellers during a real estate...

Tap into your home equity five ways

Your home is not just a place to live; it's a valuable asset that can serve as a financial resource when you need it most. One of the significant advantages of homeownership is the opportunity to build equity over time, which can be accessed in various ways to fund...

New Construction Homes with Your Own Agent

Homebuyers in the market who are frustrated by the low inventory are finding what they want in new construction. Among the obvious advantages are that it is fresh and new, has never been lived in, and can be personalized to an individual's taste and needs. New...

How Rapid Rescoring Can Make a Difference

Imagine you're on the verge of securing a mortgage, and a slightly higher credit score could mean a lower interest rate. The good news? There's a quicker way to make that possibility a reality. Mortgage loans are often more time-sensitive than other loans. If you find...

Why It’s a Smart Move to Buy a Home in the Current Market

If you're in a financially stable position, now might be the perfect time to embark on your homeownership journey. Buying a home today offers several advantages, including the opportunity to build equity and stabilize your housing costs in the face of rising expenses....

RECENT POSTS

ABOUT  TWENTY
THREE HOMES

The Twenty Three Homes are one of the premiere real estate groups locally, nationally and internationally, specifically dealing with high-end properties and exclusive clientele. Partner with Keller Williams Twenty Three Homes are full service real estate experts whose clients benefit from the custom tailored, hands on service while receiving all the exclusive amenities and resources of one of the most established and respected firms in the business.

GET IN TOUCH